Currently, the national hot-rolled coil market is in a weak supply-demand balance, with prices fluctuating under pressure. On the supply side, steel mills have reduced production, leading to a contraction in overall supply. However, the pressure from previous capacity and product mix adjustments remains, resulting in a relatively loose supply situation. While inventories have decreased, they remain high compared to the same period last year, exerting significant downward pressure on prices. On the demand side, the off-season, coupled with weather constraints, means that demand is primarily driven by essential needs, with little prospect of significant growth. So, what will the actual market performance of hot-rolled coils be in the future?
In 2025, the national hot-rolled coil market as a whole exhibited a weak and fluctuating pattern. According to data monitoring, as of December 24, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coils nationwide was reported at 3,295 yuan/ton, down 214 yuan/ton year-on-year, a decline of 6.09%, with the market price center significantly moving downward. At the same time, the annual price difference between peaks and troughs was only 320 yuan/ton, a significant narrowing of 738 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year, indicating a clear reduction in price volatility. This suggests that the market competition between bullish and bearish forces is becoming more balanced, the influence of capital on the hot-rolled coil spot market is decreasing, and market sentiment is leaning toward caution. On the other hand, it also reflects the increasingly apparent feature of the industry that 'off-season is not off, peak season is not peak,' meaning the traditional seasonal supply and demand fluctuations are weakened, with upstream and downstream enterprises mainly procuring on demand, further suppressing the space for price fluctuations.
At present, the national hot-rolled coil and sheet market shows a weak balance between supply and demand, and the price operation center continues to be under pressure, fluctuating and weak. Although the supply side has been affected by the contraction of steel mills' profits, resulting in production cuts and maintenance, with both output and capacity utilization rates falling simultaneously and the total supply volume decreasing, the supply pressure brought about by the release of new capacity and the transformation of varieties in the early stage has not been fully digested. The overall market supply remains in a relatively loose state. Although the inventory side shows a double decline trend of social inventory and factory inventory, the pace of inventory reduction is relatively slow due to the drag of demand. The absolute inventory volume is still significantly high year-on-year, exerting continuous pressure on the market. The demand side coincides with the traditional off-season for consumption. Coupled with factors such as low temperatures in the north and the rush to finish construction in the south, the procurement demand in the downstream manufacturing and infrastructure sectors has shrunk simultaneously. The apparent demand has fallen below a critical threshold. The terminal is mainly replenishing inventories for essential needs, and bulk orders are scarce. The weak demand situation is difficult to effectively improve. Overall, both the supply and demand sides are in a weak state. High inventory and low demand form the core suppression. Cost support and policy expectations can only provide a temporary bottom support. In the short term, prices lack effective upward momentum and are likely to maintain a volatile and weak operation pattern. In the later stage, the focus should be on the pace of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, the extent of steel mills' production cuts, and the implementation of macro policies.
